Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Natural Gas Update

The Oct. contract is making new lows but the spot chart low was 2.69. Where is this going?
Long Term the C=A target is 1.95. BUT Taking a look at the mo.bar chart reveals very little time spent below the 2.50 level, and the upside risk vs. potential downside reward is significantly skewed. Additionally there is my weird notion that the monthly bar chart is tracing out a Rorschach ink block test...it's symmetrical look implies it could see a spike at any time. Of course that might be unlikely during an ELNino winter in which we have record stocks , a potential equities crap out, and structural issues around ETF's etc.
So "The Trend  is Your Friend". Getting long in front of this freight train probably should wait until a little evidence of a reversal shows up...taking out that trendline for starters, or even overlapping the prior days highs.
 

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