Natural Gas Slide

The Trend HAS Been our Friend, but at this point in the game SERIOUS reversals can occur at any time. Nat Gas got within  45 cents of the long term target for the decline from 15.78 this morning. While that target is still a significant % down from here, in real money,  not that much.
The last leg down from 3.22 (on the roll) is equal to .618 of the 4.08 to 2.69 move that preceded it at 2.36.  And on the last little move down from yesterdays highs we have 5=1 at 2.41 .
Retraceing more than .618 of that last leg @2.61 should be a warning of a more significant  move. An overlap of 2.74 would have the shorts very nervous and rightly so.


  1. Oct natgas shorts covering today: ngv +.15 ,, ngf -.06 v/f -2.10 (traded as low as -2.37 yest)
    This highlights diminishing rewards selling down at these levels, about which you have been cautioning.


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