Friday, September 25, 2009

Natural Gas Rolls On and Up

Natural Gas continues it's counter intuitive move up, defying  the petroleum complex price direction, the fundamentals , the weather, and of course, recent stock market action.
Not unexpected however. Please see
 Monthly Bar Chart NG  
and  Natural Gas Slide   from Sept. 4.







In the current Elliott count , the first c=a,  followed by a retrace labeled -b- . The -c- is comprised of 3 roughly equal legs of lesser degee, all clearly related and expanding the channel. The subsequent triangle correction can be labeled -x-, with expectations of a subsequent abc perhaps equal to the first series $1.50, targeting $5.00. However it might be that it's  -d- and we are getting close to the end of what will be A of larger degree. The ability of Natural to hold the channel trendline will help resolve the argument.

In favor of the higher target is of course the upcoming roll. Spot charts will likely be a lot higher come Tuesday, and probably will take out the previous highs at 4.16. Unfortunetly the giant roll up is problematic for those holding Nov right here. That contract can come off quite a bit without incurring any technical damage.

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