Natural Gas and the UNG Roll

Natural HAS moved up smartly and even now is over 3.00, up .62 from it's lows. BUT with the sharp retracement Fri., upcoming UNG roll (-1.07 ouch!), weakness in equities, WTI and Euro , the potential for an overlap of 2.74 is HIGH. 
An overlap of 2.74 will raise the risk of the recent move up being a minor correction, with new lows under 2.41 likely.

However if NG gets a push to new lows, 1.95 is the C=A TARGET. Real dollar long term risk will certainly be to the upside.