Fed Expectations

The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and to make positive noises about the probable end of the "recession" .  They will announce planning for the management of possible future inflation, and the "exit" strategy in placating tones.
If memory serves me, typical intraday market behavior is for a run  up in the hour or two prior to the announcement ,  followed by the release, and an immediate head fake presenting an excellent  fade opportunity. Unfortunately it can sometimes be a double head fake.

In the larger context of a bear market rally in it's latter stages, any new highs that were then subsequently reversed, and followed by new lows on the day , would be very bearish.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

WTI Update- a 4 Handle Future?

Image
From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher.  However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here.  It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up,  but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78  Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued,  including whether the wave down is completed yet or not,   the $
Read more

Biden Climate Plan and Global GDP

Image
 KUDOS, and I mean it, to Biden. Real implementation will be incredibly difficult and failure will mean doom (don t think your grandchildren are going to survive in a world without plankton).  By next election cycle the path the world is on will be visible to all and most likely we will see spiking carbon emissions, devastating weather catastrophes, the need for even more investment, carbon taxes, and even more weaponizing of painful choices.  The pandemic definitely decreased global emissions. To stay under the limit on future emissions needed to keep climate temps under the 1.5 centigrade increase, that same decrease in emissions Y on Y has to be achieved every year until 2030. Reality No.1)  Co2 and other greenhouse gas emissions have a very high correlation w Global GDP, .87 to .93 Climate change is unfortunately global so don t bother with arguments based on regional data. In the United States some progress growing GDP while cutting emissions has been achieved in some locales. Mos
Read more

Crude Oil Update

Image
WTI has  a long history of affinity for Fibonacci retracement levels. It just touched the .618 retrace of this years move down. 1 yr. chart click to enlarge There is also the little issue of seasonality. click to enlarge And Hedge Funds have been piling in over the last 3 weeks. John Kemp of Reuters reports they are net long an additional 112 mml bbl wti= Brent on both Nymex and ICE. So on the downside taking out the Fib .618 retrace of the move up and break out to the upside around 51.15 will help sharpen things up.  The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange and energy derivatives carry a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.  The above is merely an abstract theoretical discussion mostly for my own entertainment, not trading advice or a recommendation.
Read more