Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Fed Expectations

The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and to make positive noises about the probable end of the "recession" .  They will announce planning for the management of possible future inflation, and the "exit" strategy in placating tones.
If memory serves me, typical intraday market behavior is for a run  up in the hour or two prior to the announcement ,  followed by the release, and an immediate head fake presenting an excellent  fade opportunity. Unfortunately it can sometimes be a double head fake.

In the larger context of a bear market rally in it's latter stages, any new highs that were then subsequently reversed, and followed by new lows on the day , would be very bearish.

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