Friday, September 11, 2009

Euro Hits Long Term Retrace

The Euro topped out last July at 1.6038 and moved down in 5 waves to 1.2329 last October .  That .3709 long term move down , call it A, was retraced exactly .62 at this afternoon 's high of 1.4636. Additionally within the abc structure comprisng the B wave correction back up, the c from 1.2457, is structured in 5 waves , an -a-,-b-, -c-,-d-,-e-, and the last -e- is equal to .61 of -c- at todays high. I'm willing to call that the termination of B .



  
The completed B implies a high risk of Euro weakness to under 1.2329 with C=A targeting 1.0927. Of course the 4th of lesser degree may also offer support around 1.16 but these are still huge moves having presumably a huge negative impact on USD commodities.

 
Check out the hourly RSI divergence.   

                

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