Monday, August 17, 2009

WTI Oversold Short Term

First thing to note is the fib .76 support at 65.10. Additionally there is repeated short term divergence on the hourly RSI. So if this is merely "c'" of a correction down from 72.84, this is where it needs to reverse. Even if this is the beginning of a much larger move down there is a good chance WTI consolidates a bit here. It's easy to count 5 waves down from 72.22. The .382 retrace of the move down from 72.22 would put it at 67.92 , also in the area of the 4th of lesser degree.

Longer term WTI (and everything else ) is likely determined by the fate of the SP and macro economics. However, not being the shy type, there is a very good chance that we are beginning the third wave down in the equities, corresponding to a so called "W" shaped recession and the next wave of Real Estate problems. Pls see Mish's Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break

Certainly WTI overlapping 62.78 will confirm a longer term top at 72.88 (or 72.22) and fib retrace points of the whole rally, 32.40 to 73.38 , will be looked to for support. The .382 retrace is 57.73, a 50% retrace comes in at 52.48 and .618 at 47.81.

No comments:

Post a Comment