Friday, August 14, 2009

SP Review Post Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment falls unexpectedly to 63.2 from 66, economists expected 69.....
no comment.
The 990 level is an overlap of the last abc up, and the 50% retrace of the last 2 abc's up. The .382 retrace of the last 3 abc's up is at 988.5.
This last significant move up from 865 to 1016 looks like an impulse wave from a distance, but on closer examination of the hourly bar chart, counts as a series of abc, x's. That raises the possibility of the entire bear market rally from 666 being completed. So penetration of early support at 990 will be an important indicator of an impulse wave down beginning. After so many months it will be refreshing to see one.
On the other hand, perhaps the 990 holds and turns out to be the "c" of consolidation. The 50% retrace up from here, 1004, will be a warning sign this is not the beginning of a primary wave down but simply the pause prior to another new high. This is my less likely scenario because we made the .382 retrace of 1565 to 666 and the number of abc series that can be counted.

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