Monday, August 17, 2009

Natural Gas Lows. Now What?

The Natural Gas made new lows today at 3.117. This was accompanied by Daily and Hourly RSI divergence.
The Long Term C=A down from 15.78 targets 1.95 and there aint much generating support between here and there. The Big Picture on the economy and SP's are no doubt going to be the decider...But a few things to note. The RSI divergence. The probability that this leg IS the last one down within the C wave from 13.70 and this leg HAS made new lows. The CFTC Commitment of Traders still has an enormous number of spec shorts with 248,822 O.I. The press is talking about UNG and the roll. And nobody is worried about hurricanes.
The move down from 4.09 isn't easy to count, probably it will grind down for now, but it's a tough short. If you've read the preceding NG comments you know I've been a bear, BUT risk is probably greater to the upside for now.

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