Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Nat Gas Bottoming?


Contrary to rumor I am not ALWAYS a bear.
This is a POSSIBLE wave count.
Given the advanced development of the bear market, since the 15.78 high in 2005, a greater than usual degree of caution regarding possible reversals is in order. Aug is traditionally the seasonal low, and everybody I know has been bearish.

Note the hourly RSI divergence.

Of course penetrating the trendline will raise the first red flags , and starting to put in higher highs, overlapping the 4th wave at 3.235 for instance, will add upside momentum.

Of course the the overall economy, SP's, and the rest of the energy market may continue to drag this thing lower and probably will. BUT.

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