Monday, August 10, 2009

August Effect, SP Pivot Pattern

With Fridays potential turning points showing up in a number of markets, Early to Mid August was triggering some memories. Like last year; the SP500 had bounced up from 1200 on 7/15/08, to 1313 on 08/11/08, and then cratered from there to 839 on 10/10/08. Hmm, so took a quick look at 08/10 or there about, since 2000 and guess what...there is a consistent pivot. In 5 of the 8 samples the pivots are from completed corrections , 2 waves or 4th waves of lesser degree, and the subsequent moves are resuming the trend. In only 2 of the samples, '06 and '01 does it not show up. In '05 it's a great pivot, not from a correction completing, but rather beginning.
Not sure what would explain it, perhaps just the kids wanna get out of town.
Will work on getting some illustration of all this but take a look.

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