Thursday, July 30, 2009

RBOB / WTI RALLY


WOW ! Looks like RBOB goes out with a bang (Aug expires Fri. 7.31) . Suppose that has something to do with the refinery utilization cutbacks but at some point here the crack , SEP @15.20, would look like a gimme. Surely Congress is going to be turning it's jaundiced eye towards that one..AND CFTC Commitment of Traders most recent report has spec long positions outnumbering spec shorts 5 to 1. If that was my refinery I'd be cranking her up.

Exxon Mobil's Profit Misses Estimates as Recession Saps Demand for Energy
and
Neste CEO Says Decline in Oil Refining Margins Has No Recovery `in Sight'

The outlook for WTI has also changed thanks to todays very strong move up. Hard to label that move a complete retracement, it's most likely an "a" wave of lesser degree. That will leave lots of alternative resolutions possible. You will notice that it retraced .76 of the preceding leg down so there's a good chance of staying within todays range and if does so maybe maintaining Thur.s primary wave "I" down status. That would change obviously if we get new highs over 68.91. For now look for choppy legs within the 60 to 70 range over the near term. Pls see the prev post WTI from 7.27. etc.

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