Friday, July 31, 2009

WTI GRIND


That is an UGLY chart. Ugly because it likely foretells more of the same. Sharp moves that overlap previous highs or lows followed by a reversal.

Pls note the 9 RSI diverging on the 30 min bar chart.

NG Storage

Yesterday's numbers were no big surprise and stories regarding limited storage capacity and pipeline pressure possibly forcing production curtailment finally hit the news. http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/07/30/chesapeake-were-running-out-of-space-to-put-unwanted-natural-gas/.
This is a topic we first started to talk about June 25; the pipeline pressure curtailing INJECTIONS into the system from the Producing Region in particular having the paradoxical effect of inhibiting the bcf builds. Not exactly bullish.
Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,023 Bcf as of Friday, July 24, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 71 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 571 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 478 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,545 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 132 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 265 Bcf above the 5-year average of 794 Bcf after a net injection of 16 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 80 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 1 Bcf. At 3,023 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.


and don't miss this; http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natur...




Thursday, July 30, 2009

RBOB / WTI RALLY


WOW ! Looks like RBOB goes out with a bang (Aug expires Fri. 7.31) . Suppose that has something to do with the refinery utilization cutbacks but at some point here the crack , SEP @15.20, would look like a gimme. Surely Congress is going to be turning it's jaundiced eye towards that one..AND CFTC Commitment of Traders most recent report has spec long positions outnumbering spec shorts 5 to 1. If that was my refinery I'd be cranking her up.

Exxon Mobil's Profit Misses Estimates as Recession Saps Demand for Energy
and
Neste CEO Says Decline in Oil Refining Margins Has No Recovery `in Sight'

The outlook for WTI has also changed thanks to todays very strong move up. Hard to label that move a complete retracement, it's most likely an "a" wave of lesser degree. That will leave lots of alternative resolutions possible. You will notice that it retraced .76 of the preceding leg down so there's a good chance of staying within todays range and if does so maybe maintaining Thur.s primary wave "I" down status. That would change obviously if we get new highs over 68.91. For now look for choppy legs within the 60 to 70 range over the near term. Pls see the prev post WTI from 7.27. etc.

"Merrill cuts U.S. dollar view " USD BUY SIGNAL

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch analysts said Thursday they had revised their currency forecasts to reflect a weaker U.S. dollar over the near term, based on the view that a correction in riskier assets -- a category generally including stocks, commodities and emerging markets currencies -- has "already played out." The U.S. dollar and to a greater extent, the yen, have tended to benefit when investors fret about the economic outlook. The greenback edged up as stocks and oil faltered from mid-June to mid-July. Such conditions seem unlikely to reemerge soon, the analysts said. They now see the euro at $1.50 by December versus $1.38 in an earlier forecast. They expect the dollar to buy 105 yen by year-end, compared to 110 earlier. On Thursday, a broad rally in stocks sent the greenback sliding against its rivals except the yen. One euro bought $1.4075, while the dollar bought 95.54 yen. (Corrects Merrill's earlier dollar/yen forecast.)

I thought it was Bank of America now.

SP LOOKOUT


Taking OFF. Got the looked for new high and believe we are now in the final stages of a double zig zag from 941 targeting 1010 if c=a. Additionally that is the final structure in a double zig zag of larger degree from 666. The .382 retrace of the entire SP move down from historic highs of 1565 to 666 targets 1010 as well. Easily within todays reach. Since this is potentially a "II" wave or B wave ending the subsequent "III" or C wave down could EASILY put in NEW lows under 666. Shorter term, after markets go ballistic there is no room for faltering. The most minimal pullback here, ie below 975, would signal a serious loss of momentum.

NATURAL GAS : Inventory Expectations and the Technical Picture


Inventory injection expectations for 7.30.09, running 73 bcf vs 68 bcf last yr. and a 51 bcf 5 yr. avg. Pls see NG Storage, 7.29

Technically Natty looks pretty vulnerable , after the spot mo found c=a support at 3.295 on the way down, it's retraced 50% of the spot move down at this mornings highs. Looks like a little abc up as well. So far that little anemic abc up this morning probably telling us something...like new lows are next on the menu. But if that was a b wave down at 3.30 and this the beginning of a c up, it will equal .618 of the a wave (3.22 to 3.91) at 3.72.

Previous lows are now 3.295, 3.225, and 3.155. On the spot chart this move down will = .618 of the waves 1 thru 3 @ 3.04.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

EURO UPDATE


At the key level of 1.40 pls see EURO DECIDE from 7.28 . If this is the beginning of an an impulse wave down to new lows for the Euro, it really should not be able to climb back above 1.4124.

It's the consumer stupid.

A great snapshot of the U.S. Consumer by Zero Hedge and David Rosenberg.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-end-recession

WTI Update -3- of 3?

NG Storage


While not exactly fresh news I love these charts.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range as of 7/17 09

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2004 through 2008.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

More will be revealed tomorrow 10:30 a.m.

NG


NG ...not exactly screaming up... or down for that matter. If it's just another abc down then potentially we get 3.31 as c=a. But after the recent 3.22 to 3.90 move and preceding 3.155 to 4.58, putting in new lows is long overdue.

However, if NG were to get another abc up equal to the first series for .68, that risk probably exceeds several downside targets, ie. 3.04 . No wonder it's a grind.

WTI


After taking out the trendline last night post API's, WTI does appear to have bounced from the .382 retracement. However, the move down is only a little over 24 hr.s old, additionally, there is as yet no RSI divergence. Even if this is a corrective pullback it would be early for it to be over. It is more likely that the recent rally was a series of corrective abc's and WTI is now resuming the downtrend. Pls see COYOTE SIGHTINGS chart posted 7.27. Overlapping 63.71 will negate any poss. interpretation of the rally as being anything other than a correction.
If WTI is just beginning an impulse wave down, bounces should be minimal as it develops. This wave down can be labeled either a C or 3 , and potenial downside risk is high as a result.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

EURO DECIDE


Once again 1.40 looks to be the key, as the .618 retrace of the last move up. Taking out that support will increase the probability of that last leg being complete. Since the Euro's move up from last autumns lows looks corrective, we may well be seeing the beginnings of an impulse wave down.

WTI Failure?

Yesterdays very choppy move lower is difficult to label as an impulse wave, so lets call it X. The subsequent move up fails to make a new high and COULD be counted as the final series of a,b,c's in a series of 3. Taking out the month long trendline crossing under today at around 66.50 ought to give the downside some momentum.

INDU and FTSE Fibonacci Alert

Turning attention to the FTSE and INDU this morning... OMG, HOW DID I NOT SEE THAT?
The INDU has had a .382 retrace of it's entire move down off the highs at 9108.
The FTSE has had a .37 retrace of the 3rd wave down.
The SP 500 since making 9108, is nothing but choppy, not an impulse wave in sight. Conclusion...
unless there is some mean acceleration down and soon, it will have to try for the highs again.
Given the INDU and FTSE fib .382 retrace, an anemic attempt or even failure would be likely.

Monday, July 27, 2009

RUH -ROH

pls click on image for sharper view

The trendline is kinda steep but...
The .236 retrace is also the last breakout point. Under that .382 might rattle a few cages, being south of round number 950 and beginning of breakout move.

NAT GAS


Anything is possible. It's mid summer.
And another choppy move up to 3.75 , the .618 retrace COULD happen...
But the most likely outcome after a 50% retrace is an eventual (ie this week) resumption of the trend and retest of the spot mo. lows.

Further Sightings


Throw in a rising wedge......
AND 65.73 , the .618 retrace of the last series of abc's , as well as the breakout point to new highs ,
should be the moment we all know Wiley's about to hit the deck.

Coyote Sightings


A series of abc structures with reasonable equivalency or, as in the last one, a .62 relationship. No doubt it could resolve just slightly higher than 68.99 at say 69.21 , but it sure looks like a correction to the first leg down off the June highs.