Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Crude Oil Update...More to Go.

Time to revisit the my Elliott Wave count and it's implications.


Note the peak volume at the -3- of (3). 
There were a lot of 1,2's and as we write this only one of the sub-waves has been completed on 11/29 at 49.41
If this is the correct count, then there will be at least 2 more lower lows put in, (5) and 5, before a significant rally can develop. 

It is still unclear whether the current consolidating structure above 50 is completed yet, but I think it has a little more to go on the upside to finish up a c for the (4) wave.
Meaning the "hour is getting late".

Ultimately the spectre of a test of the 26.10 lows is going to be under review as lower lows are put in and the  .618 retrace of the entire move up is put to the test as support.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The Crude Move -Where Are We Now?

This is my most likely Elliott Wave count;

click to enlarge
Pls note the repeated pos divergence on the RSI.

The pos divergence coupled with the current count of  subwave -5-  of [3] down, suggests short term upside risk.

click to enlarge
No pos divergence yet however on the wickedly oversold daily RSI.
Note the -3- of [3] occurs as it takes out the previous lows at 64.25


click to enlarge
On the weekly the big thing is the .38 fib retrace point of the entire move up from 26.
CL touched that yest and it is going to be an important signifier of the overall condition of the market if that holds or not and to what degree. My guess is if the wave count on the hourly chart is correct than it will be short lived support.

Don't miss the preceding Crude posts for context.

Pls don't lose any money trading on this; it's entirely speculative. Good luck btw.. 

Friday, November 2, 2018

Crude Lowdown

How low is lower? Thus far the sideways action over the last 24 hr.s does not look encouraging for the bulls. The good news is it's looking a tad oversold very short term.
click to enlarge
Note the pos divergence on the RSI.
As I type this it dropped lower.

Note the Fib support at around the 60 point. So considering how oversold it is here perhaps a little consolidation prior to testing that 60? Jack be nimble.

For longer term view see the previous posts.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Crude Oil Update

Been awhile since I've posted on Crude Oil , but catch the Tweets of Oct.9 and 17.

Crude failed to rally off last weeks low of 70.50, and instead ranged sideways for a consolidation  before putting in new lows yesterday.  And while a $2 drop isn't all that, it suggests a wave structure down from the 76.88 high vastly different from the "abc" corrective move it well might have been prior to yesterday.

 In fact the move down could be a 5 down or even a series of 1, 2's of lesser degree, setting up for an extending 3 wave down and all that implies.

Whats the big deal?  IMHO there is no reason in Elliott Wave theory why the Crude can't retest the low at $26.  
The initial leg up from the 33.20 low way back in 2009, ended at 114.83 or $81.63 later
This move up from the 2016 low of 26.05 prob topped out at 76.90  for $50.85, or .62 of that first move.

click to enlarge
Note the series of neg divergence on the RSI.
So a failed retest of yesterdays breakdown at 70.50 followed by a trend line penetration, would raise the downside risk considerably here.  

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Small Caps Big Pullback

It's only been a little more than a month since the Russell 2000 highs, and it's lost a lot of value since then, 7.4% as of Tue morn.
Daily Bars 
click to enlarge

It is in oversold territory, as well as hitting the Fib .382 retrace and 4th of a lesser degree support.
This suggests risk of a short term pause or bounce here. 

However given the Elliott Wave Count discussed in the previous post, medium and long term risk of a very serious nature is growing as evidenced by the deep sell off in this index.

Those familiar with Wave Theory will know the implications of a Grand Super Cycle top; a long term decline of relatively equal significance as the Cycle High lasting many decades. Since the Theory posits that markets reflect aggregate societal mood and functionality, a decline of this import would imply a society breaking down as well.
Now the GSC HAS lasted 80 years, so you may have some time before the walking dead come for you, but 
You can hear the crazies howling for blood tonight on your TV.

Happy Halloween 

Monday, September 24, 2018

Top of the Pops; Ring Ring

A little review (context is all).

Starting with the consensus Elliott wave count on an SP500  going back to 1930, we have been in the 5th wave up of the Grand Super Cycle V wave since the 2009 low. Big Q then is; are we there yet?
                                                                    log scale
                            click to enlarge                            

Waves I thru III increased by a factor of 25.16,  and wave V has increased from the '82 low, by a factor of 25.75 at the 2947 high.

The wave count on the rally up off the 2009 lows;
10 yr chart
click to enlarge
Of note is the near equivalence of wave III and V around 1130 pts
The weekly bar also has negative divergence on the RSI vs the Jan '18 spike.

3 yr. chart

The 5 of V is 344 pts, vs. 1 of V at 310 pt.s

click to enlarge
Note the daily RSI negative divergence. 
We are now in the 5th of the V of the Grand Super Cycle 5th Wave. ( I botched the degree labeling on these but point remains).

With a significant pullback, say 5% or 147 pt.s putting the SP under 2800, risk to the downside from this extremely elevated and mature move, is essentially incalculable. Do you look to the 4th wave of lesser degree as a target? That would be 80. Too extreme? OK how bout a pullback to the 4th wave of 2 lesser degree's? That' the 2009 low of 666. Maybe just to down to the 4th of 3 lesser degrees, or 1815 from 02/08/2016, 1135 SP pt's for a 38% drop.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Natural Gas Poised for Breakout

These are front month continuation charts.
20 yr.

Thats a base.

5 yr.
The 2.50 level is proving itself as well as being the .61 retrace.

Now look at the Jan at 3.165. If nothing else the winter curve will force the continuation charts into an upside breakout.