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Is it Stocksaggedon? Or?? September market forecast....EH.

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 Historically September is NOT a great month for equities. Many many examples of big selloffs in Sept and/or Oct. and statistical averages support the notion. Importantly this has also provided great entry points for the fairly regular 4th Q rally. Once again I ask that you spend 10 sec and review the previous equities post  "How High the Bounce?" . Currently equities have already retraced (the Nasdaq 100) or nearly retraced (the SPX), 50% of the July 13 to Aug 16 explosive rally.  And while this morning it doesn't "look" quite complete, if you are a bull, this is where you start taking aim. It would also make sense from a seasonal perspective to see Nov and Dec upside action. I would be surprised however if we were to see a resumption of the move up from here, implying new highs.  I believe this down leg will ultimately be deeper and more complex, eventually chopping around quite a bit.        The 1st half of the year saw a pretty choppy structure down. It wor

Climate Hope; Thanks to Putin, Powell and Biden

 Could it be? Really? Somehow, after Covid  and the fiscal and monetary stimulus of  gargantuan proportions that it engendered, somehow, after a very hard fought and effective push back by fossil fuel interests, somehow, after every US citizen bought a large ICE truck with a 6 or 7 year loan, FINALLY,  the gods have conspired to bring to realization every wishful prescription necessary for an extremely sharp decrease in consuming, and a rapid transition away from, Fossil Fuels. 1) Very high global pricing for Fossil Fuels. ( a little politically difficult to engineer).  2) Much higher interest rates to suppress global GDP which is very highly correlated with Co2 emissions. When was the last time anyone argued FOR lowered economic growth? My main man Powell! 3) Heavily processed foods and livestock shrinking its footprint and market share (never have gotten that one legislated) . 3) And finally, a really BIG stimulus, tax credits, grants, low cost loans etc for renewables, infrastructur

More on Natural Gas.

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 What an interesting market; Fundamentally, technically, geopolitically, the LNG story, climate! Just wow. First of all short term, the highlighted area does NOT look like a rounding top to me. It looks like a fast, choppy consolidation just under the highs. Taking out those highs decisively..call it a settle, projects up to 10.25 or 10.85 or even 12.35 (see very long term chart fib points). BTW on an inflation adjusted basis it's cheap haha. Other point s of interest;  Long dated NG swaps J5 to Z9 getting done.  Have a great August weekend.

Natural Gas: Inventories, Exports and Long Term Implications for Domestic Pricing

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 Aug 18               Fact 1)  Global Temps and weather patterns are likely to continue the trend of the last few decades, which has included exceeding forecast of rising temps projections and winter polar vortex events. Fact2) LNG demand will grow as will US export capacity, up 30% from here by 2025.  Fact 3) Storage will remain in the lower range of the 5 year avg. for a very long time.

Back to Lfe! Why Inflation, Rates, and Energy will get Supercharged

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 A bit of actual "on the ground" info can be super telling and I ve got a lot of juicy stories, BUT. Historically, I have often been surprised by the specifics of the fundamental drivers / macro surprises that have moved markets. There s a lot going on out there. What always impresses me is how something simple and seemingly unrelated to fundamental narratives, like Fibonacci Ratios, repeatedly define the support/ resistance and often target accurately price moves.   A little somethin somethin; WTI w equal legs down                   How bout Natural Gas? A 50% pullback, looks like positive divergence on the RSI. Does seem a tad warm and what about that surprise storage build last week? Really ? OK conspiracy theory's aside, we also had a weird under 2020 gasoline consumption number, much discussed. Sure to be interesting going forward.                                              

How High the Bounce?

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 Always the question yes? We did get one, see last post, and targets are the fibonacci retrace points of the 6 mo move down. 4085, 4225,  and 4360. Roughly. Really depends on when you want to go on vaca I think. Of course it may be I m early as usual, but scale up selling is one of my favorite things. Gonna leave those orders in and hit the beach. BTW not advice and don t trust anything I say.                                

The Case for a Bounce

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 Context is ALL. Please check out my FEB. 3rd POST, Am I Being Alarmist   The piece examines a very long term Elliott Wave count that is complete at the highs of last January, along with downside targets etc. The downside targets were roughly 4000 and 3000 but it was very early days in the development of the structure.  There WAS a pretty good bounce off the 4100 area in mid March. Right, what now though?  Contrarians Delight. Bloomberg reports Capitulation Etc Serious consensus. Not to mention the weekends "Dollar Doom Loop" stuff.                    It s subtle, but note the RSI positive divergence. I count a likely a,b,c down with c= 1.618 of a, and a .236 Fib pull back of the ENTIRE market (using ES) at the lows.  Also notice the generally higher volume levels seen at big buy inflection point opportunities in this market.  Don t get me wrong, I m still an Alarmist, just thinking a 50% retrace of the first a,b,c structure down could be in the cards at this point.  Also I